The International 2026 main event predictions: who will claim the Aegis?

The International 2026 (TI 2026) has already delivered plenty of surprises, cutting the field down to the final eight teams after an unpredictable group stage and elimination round.

Even though some of my earlier TI 2026 predictions didn’t pan out, I still finished in the 91st percentile – so I’m taking another shot at ranking the remaining Dota 2 teams based on their latest form, individual performance, head-to-head records, bracket position, and a little good ol’ fashioned hopium.

You can refer to my prediction bracket for the TI 2026 main event to see my calls from the opening matches through the grand final. syntagm.co.za

While these picks are primarily based on the stats and research outlined in the sections that follow, they also include some personal biases, such as choosing Nigma Galaxy over Team Vision — controversial, I know. That said, I strongly encourage you to do your own research to inform your own choices.

Team Vision has been the most convincing team at TI 2026 so far, finishing the group stage as the only 4–0 team with an 8–2 map record. More impressively, three of those series were against teams that also reached the main event, namely Team Falcons, BoomBoys (BetBoom Team), and Team Spirit.

Vision posted a flawless 3–0 record across those matchups and 6–1 in maps, triumphing in a lengthy 94-minute game with 56 kills against Team Falcons. More importantly, that run is part of a much longer hot streak after Vision went 16–3 at the Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), where they ultimately lifted the trophy.

Alan ‘Satanic’ Gallyamov has produced some of the strongest numbers at TI.

He currently leads the tournament in average GPM (938), XPM (1,049), kills (14.10), and KDA (17.20). Those numbers are even better than his already godlike performance at EWC 2026, where he averaged a 7.75 KDA across 19 maps.

However, the team isn’t entirely reliant on Satanic. EWC MVP Evgeniy ‘Noticed’ Ignatenko also posted equally impressive stats, ranking second in both average assists (20.10) and KDA (12.04).

Against other teams competing at TI 2026, Vision has the clearest path to the grand final.

In 2026, Vision dominated BoomBoys with a 5–1 record, including a 3–1 victory in the EWC 2026 grand final and a 2–0 sweep in the TI 2026 group stage. Vision’s head-to-head record against the main event teams on Patch 7.41 is currently 19-3-1, with losses only to Falcons, Yandex, and Spirit. Their map record is also an astounding 77–25 (75.5% win rate).

Needless to say, Team Vision’s raw individual performances are more than enough to take them to the grand final and give them the best shot at claiming the Aegis.

Nigma Galaxy has been the most surprising team at TI 2026, finishing the group stage 4–1 with an 8–2 map record.

After losing their opening series to Iron Wing (1w Team), Nigma proceeded to sweep OG, LGD Gaming, Vici Gaming, and Team Spirit to qualify for the main event. This dominance mirrored their 9–1 map finish at EWC 2026, where they faced powerhouses Team Liquid and Aurora Gaming before dropping off in the playoffs.

The turnaround coincided almost exactly with Nigma replacing Denys ‘rincyq’ Bohushev and Tony ‘No!ob’ Assaf with Sumail ‘SumaiL’ Hassan as carry and Artem ‘lorenof’ Melnyk as mid.

Lorenof currently tops the charts in hero damage (55,723) and is second-highest in kills (11.70), while ranking among the top 10 players in KDA (9.42), GPM (770), and XPM (998). Meanwhile, SumaiL ranks second in hero damage (49,556) and third in both kills (10) and last hits (677).

The team’s supports are also pulling their weight, with Omar ‘OmaR’ Moughrabi leading with 20.40 assists and Maroun ‘GH’ Merhej ranking fourth with 18.30 assists. OmaR also excels in vision control, with the second-highest dewards (3.70) and the third-most observer wards placed (15.10).

This version of Nigma Galaxy has a 25–15 map record since the reshuffle, equivalent to a 62.5% map win rate. Despite that, they have a tough journey ahead and will have to overcome the defending TI 2025 champions, Team Falcons.

However, Nigma’s recent performance and late-game tenacity give them a strong chance of a deep run, no matter the bracket.

Team Liquid enters the TI 2026 main event as another likely grand finalist after posting its strongest stretch of the season.

The team went 4–1 in the group stage, continuing a late-season surge that began at 1win Essence II roughly a week before reaching Shanghai. Liquid won that event by sweeping Falcons 3–0 in the grand final, despite an earlier 2–0 loss to them in the upper bracket final.

Liquid showed the same mid-series adaptation in their TI 2026 group stage run, beating juggernauts Yandex, Iron Wing, and Aurora 2–1 before sweeping Vici 2–0, all while only losing to Spirit.

Despite Liquid’s 4–1 group stage finish, though, their star players haven’t produced the same eye-catching numbers seen at previous tournaments. For example, midlaner Michał ‘Nisha’ Jankowski recorded the fourth-best KDA at 6.39 and the third-highest average killstreak at 6.07.

Meanwhile, carry player Michael ‘miCKe’ Vu posted the third-best tower damage per minute at 266.71. For context, Nisha and miCKe both led the leaderboard in kills at recent events, while supports Erik ‘tOfu’ Engel and Samuel ‘Boxi’ Svahn recorded the most assists.

Liquid also had a mixed season. They won 1win Essence II and BLAST Slam VI, finished second at PGL Wallachia Season 7, and posted respectable placements elsewhere. However, they also struggled at EWC and DreamLeague 29, finishing 9th–12th at both tournaments. Liquid’s overall map record of 74–52 on Patch 7.41 gives them a 58.7% win rate.

The main concern is that Liquid holds an 8–16 series record on Patch 7.41 against teams competing at TI. While Liquid swept their main event opening opponent, Yandex, during the group stage, the matchup has historically been difficult for them, with Liquid suffering two recent series losses, including a 3–2 grand final defeat.

Iron Wing has been one of the more difficult teams to gauge this season, but their 3–2 group stage has pushed the ex-Tundra roster right back into contention.

After winning DreamLeague Season 28 and ESL One Birmingham 2026, the team struggled to maintain consistency. They failed to reach the playoffs in three subsequent tournaments and suffered early exits in the playoffs of two others. Their best recent result was a third-place finish at 1win Essence II, where they lost 2–0 to Liquid.

Iron Wing arguably had the hardest path to qualify for the TI 2026 main event, facing five teams that also qualified. They swept Nigma 2–0, beat Falcons and Yandex 2–1, but lost 1–2 against BoomBoys and Liquid. Iron Wing later comfortably swept GamerLegion 2–0 in the elimination round to punch their ticket.

The team has also posted outstanding stats at TI 2026, reflecting how well they work as a unit. Support Matthew ‘Ari’ Walker averaged 86.57 seconds of stuns per map, the second-highest at the tournament, while his 5.06 neutral camps stacked per map ranked fifth. As a team, Iron Wing also averaged 1.63 Roshan kills per map, the fifth-highest figure at TI.

Taken together, those performances make Iron Wing a genuine dark horse at TI 2026. Although their strong run following the previous TI began to lose momentum later in the season, their impressive group stage gauntlet showed that they still have the quality to make a serious run at the Aegis.

Team Yandex is the strongest team in the bottom half of the ranking. However, the team’s 2–3 Group Stage record doesn’t truly reflect how dangerous they have been this year.

Yandex won PGL Wallachia Season 7 and BLAST Slam VII, and finished second at ESL One Birmingham. More impressively, they boast a 61.3% win rate on Patch 7.41 with a 49–31 map record. Alimzhan ‘watson‘ Islambekov remains the centerpiece of the team and accounts for nearly all of Yandex’s records at TI 2026.

Watson is highly efficient in lane, ranking fourth in last hits per minute (13.11) and average creeps denied (19.24), while also holding the fifth-longest killstreak (5.59). He is also tied for the second-most diverse Dota 2 hero pool, behind only Topias ‘Topson‘ Taavitsainen.

Despite all of Yandex’s past achievements, they still rank #5 in my TI 2026 predictions because they simply haven’t produced a convincing enough win against a top team at TI. In the group stage, Yandex beat winless Huligani and defeated Team Resilience 2-1.

Granted, they suffered close losses to Liquid, Aurora, and Iron Wing, but they also barely escaped elimination with a 2–1 win against LGD. Even so, Yandex has the potential to re-establish itself as a grand final contender – but only if it can rediscover its earlier form.

Team Falcons enters the Main Event with a chance to defend its title, but the reigning champions haven’t looked nearly as dominant throughout 2026.

After winning TI 2025, Falcons went on to win FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 and finish as runners-up at BLAST Slam IV. However, their most recent grand final appearance came at 1win Essence II. The team’s overall record on Patch 7.41 also makes those inconsistent placements somewhat misleading, with Falcons posting a strong 74–41 map record and a 64.6% win rate.

Falcons went 3–2 in the TI group stage, with all five series going to three games, including the tournament’s longest game so far. They opened with a win over LGD before losing consecutive series to Vision and Iron Wing, then recovered with 2–1 victories over GamerLegion and BoomBoys. Falcons eventually qualified for the main event by sweeping Vici 2–0 in the elimination round.

Individually, Falcons haven’t produced the same kind of tournament-leading numbers as some other contenders.

Although Andreas ‘Cr1t-‘ Nielsen leads the leaderboard in average camp stacks (6.12) and Oliver ‘skiter‘ Lepko ranks fourth in average tower damage (243.99), Falcons’ inability to cleanly close out games – combined with their lengthy matches – gives opponents plenty of wiggle room to punish them and potentially eliminate them from the tournament.

Team Spirit had one of the strangest routes to the TI 2026 main event, starting the Group Stage 3–0 before nearly being eliminated.

They swept Xtreme and Aurora before beating Liquid 2–1, putting them one series away from qualifying. Instead, Spirit were swept 2–0 by both Vision and Nigma, forcing them into the elimination round, where they recovered with a close 2–1 win over Team Resilience.

Ilya ‘Yatoro’ Mulyarchuk remains the biggest reason Spirit is still in contention for the Aegis, as his other teammates have fallen behind.

The two-time TI winner has recorded the fifth-highest average kills (9.57), second-highest GPM (855.36), and second-highest average last hits (704). He’s also highly efficient when split-pushing, dealing the second-most tower damage per minute (279.37), but also active in fights, with the fourth-most hero damage per minute (834.65).

Beyond his overall numbers, Yatoro also tied SumaiL for the most kills in a single TI game, recording 31 kills against Team Liquid.

Since Alexey ‘not me‘ Kosmynin joined in May and Aleksandr ‘rue‘ Filin moved to position five, Spirit has posted a 49–28 map record for a much stronger 63.6% win rate.

However, their head-to-head record against the other main event teams is less convincing: 9-14-1 in series and 21–30 in maps. Spirit have surprisingly dominated Liquid with a 4–0 series record on Patch 7.41, but are 0–4 against both Falcons and Yandex.

With Yatoro playing at his usual TI level and the current roster performing much better than earlier versions of Spirit, a deep run is not out of reach. The only problem is that their inconsistency makes backing them for a third Aegis a bigger gamble than the teams ranked above them.

BoomBoys enter the TI 2026 main event much lower in this ranking than their previous tournament achievements would normally suggest.

The team had one of its most successful seasons, winning PGL Wallachia Season 8 with a dominant 15–3 map record and finishing second at EWC 2026 after reaching the grand final with a 14–2 record. They also had several other top-four finishes in 2026. BoomBoys have also posted an 85–48 map record (63.9% win rate) this season, reinforcing their excellent track record.

Despite that, their TI 2026 group stage was shaky, starting 2–0 with wins over OG and Iron Wing before losing three consecutive series against Vision, Aurora, and Falcons. They eventually recovered by sweeping Aurora 2–0 in the elimination round.

Ilya ‘Kiritych‘ Ulyanov showed how high the team’s ceiling can be, recording the tournament’s highest single-game GPM of 1,105 on Necrophos. He was particularly impressive in their elimination series against Aurora, especially the 10/2/7 performance on Io in the deciding map. While Danil ‘gpk‘ Skutin is one of their star players, he has yet to make a statistical mark at TI 2026.

However, BoomBoys sit this low in my TI 2026 main event predictions largely because they have arguably the toughest opening matchup of any remaining team.

Their first opponent is Vision, a team that has dominated them throughout 2026 with a 13–5 map record and already swept them 2–0 in the TI Group Stage. If their underwhelming group stage form continues, BoomBoys could very well bow out early from TI 2026.

With eight teams left and several contenders already showing weaknesses, TI 2026 remains difficult to call heading into the final week. While Team Vision is the “safest pick” for the Aegis, any of these teams could realistically go all the way.

While raw stats and numbers can always serve as a good forecast for what’s about to happen, they will never guarantee the results when these elite teams go head-to-head in Shanghai.

Disclaimer: All statistics are accurate as of Aug. 19, 2026, and are sourced from DatDota and Spectral.gg.